Market Pulse

See the market through a physics lens

Live regime detection, crash probability alerts, and a weekly signal replay showing exactly what our models saw. No PhD required.

$20 / month
Live Regime Status
Current Market Regime
RISK-ON
Confidence: 82%
CrisisCautionRisk-On
Markets are in a risk-on regime. Equity momentum is positive, credit spreads are tight, and volatility is below the 30th percentile. The physics model sees no structural stress in correlation eigenvectors. Full allocation is appropriate.
Updated Apr 10, 2026 — 3:45 PM CT
Signal Overview
Crash Probability Normal
4.2%
Instanton tunneling probability
↓ Down from 6.1% last week
No action needed. Crash probability is well below the 15% alert threshold. The double-well potential shows the market firmly in the stable basin.
Regime Signal Risk-On
82%
Risk-on confidence via HMM ensemble
↑ Up from 74% last week
Maintain full allocation. Regime has been stable risk-on for 18 consecutive days. Nelson decomposition shows current velocity dominant over osmotic velocity.
Signal Quality (SNR) Strong
3.8
Signal-to-noise ratio
→ Stable for 2 weeks
Full position sizing is appropriate. High SNR means model confidence is strong.
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Factor Stability Stable
0.08
Grassmannian rotation rate (rad/wk)
↓ Declining from 0.12
Factor structure is stable. No rebalancing trigger detected.
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Derivative Hedge Inactive
N/A
No hedge required in current regime
→ Monitoring
Protective contracts available when crash probability exceeds threshold.
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$499/mo — Signal + Hedge
Portfolio Impact — Conservative 60/40
Cumulative Return (%)
Original
With Signals
Simulated 60/40 backtest using Regime + Crash signals only. Unlock all 4 portfolios + 5 signals →
8-Month Backtest (Sep 2025 – Apr 2026)
Original 60/40 +1.8%
With Signals +3.0%
Max Drawdown
Original 60/40 -8.5%
With Signals -2.1%
Sharpe Ratio
Original 60/40 0.42
With Signals 1.38
Signal Alpha
Return added by signals +1.2%
This Week's Signal Replay

Never miss a regime shift

Get instant alerts when the regime changes, crash probability spikes, or factor stability breaks down. Email + browser push notifications included with Market Pulse.

What's Included in Market Pulse
●
Live Regime Indicator
Real-time risk-on / caution / crisis classification updated throughout the trading day. No delay.
✓ Included
⚠
Crash Probability Alerts
Instant notification when instanton tunneling probability exceeds your chosen threshold (default 15%).
✓ Included
✉
Weekly Digest
Every Monday: what happened last week, what the model saw, and what to watch this week. Plain language, no jargon.
✓ Included
📈
Signal Replay
Interactive replay of each week's signal history showing exactly when regime shifts and crash alerts fired.
✓ Included
📱
Push Notifications
Browser and email alerts for regime changes. Know the moment the market shifts from risk-on to caution.
✓ Included
🛠
Portfolio Context
See what the signal means for a standard 60/40 portfolio. Simulated impact shown in real time on this dashboard.
✓ Included

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