Cumulative Return (%)
Original
Signal-Adjusted
Signal + Hedge
Signal-Adjusted Allocation
As of Apr 10, 2026
Signal Event Timeline
Derivative Hedge Detail
Step 1
Signal detects risk
Crash probability rises to 22%, factor instability detected
Step 2
Derivative activates
Crash Probability Path Swap pays out as P(crash) exceeds fixed rate
Step 3
Portfolio protected
Derivative payout offsets equity losses during March drawdown

Instruments Used

Regime Transition Swap
Protects against correlation breakdown across asset classes
Explore in Structuring Lab →
Crash Probability Path Swap
Pays when crash risk exceeds threshold, sized by instanton tunneling probability
Explore in Structuring Lab →
Know the weather
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Daily regime traffic light (green/yellow/red). Weekly digest email. Crash alert notifications. Dashboard access (1-day delay).
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Everything in Market Pulse + full daily regime reports, weekly crash risk assessment, monthly deep-dive research notes, research paper library.
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Everything in Research + raw signal API, implementation playbook with exact portfolio rules, 2-year historical archive, webhook delivery.
Full protection
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Everything in Signal Feed + derivative structuring access, hedge recommendations, quarterly hedge performance review.
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Managed signal overlay, custom universe, real-time streaming, dedicated integration, strategy consultation.

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