Regime & Risk
Market regime is the single most important input into how much risk you take. This is what a Professional subscriber sees each week.
RISK ON · NEUTRAL BIAS
Regime score+0.42
Tail-risk levelELEVATED
Equity allocation62%
Defensive allocation38%
Signal quality score0.71 / 1.00
Confidence vs last weekSTABLE
3-Bucket Macro Split
High-level allocation across stocks, bonds, and gold. The Starter tier receives this alone; Professional gets it plus the 12-ETF breakdown below.
12-ETF Target Weightings
Target percentages across a fixed 12-ETF universe. Professional subscribers get weightings only — no share counts, no buy/sell instructions. Translate the percentages into orders yourself, or pair with a broker that supports fractional targets.
| Symbol | Bucket | Role | Target weight |
|---|
| SPY | Stocks | US Large Cap | 24.0% |
| QQQ | Stocks | US Growth | 16.0% |
| IWM | Stocks | US Small Cap | 7.0% |
| EFA | Stocks | Developed Intl | 9.0% |
| EEM | Stocks | Emerging Mkts | 6.0% |
| AGG | Bonds | US Aggregate | 14.0% |
| TLT | Bonds | Long Treasury | 6.0% |
| HYG | Bonds | High Yield | 5.0% |
| TIP | Bonds | TIPS | 3.0% |
| GLD | Gold | Gold | 7.0% |
| DBC | Other | Commodities | 2.0% |
| VNQ | Other | Real Estate | 1.0% |
Weights sum to 100%. Rebalance cadence: weekly. Historical drift tolerance: ±3% before a re-trade is recommended.
Signal Quality
Directional conviction0.71
Tail-risk gatingActive
Model agreement (5 independent strategies)4 of 5
Historical alpha vs 60/40 (1y)+3.8%
Last regime change14 days ago
Regime Context
Risk-on conditions remain in place: breadth is constructive, credit spreads are tight, and volatility is below its 3-month average. That said, tail-risk signals have been flashing ELEVATED for two weeks — we've trimmed equity exposure from 68% to 62% and rotated four points into gold. This is a mild defensive tilt, not a crisis posture. We'd move to 55/45 if tail-risk escalates to HIGH, or to 45/55 if the regime flips to RISK OFF.
Performance vs 60/40 Benchmark
Quark target allocation (week)+1.42%
Standard 60/40 (week)+0.91%
Alpha (week)+0.51%
Alpha (year to date)+3.8%