Quark Ensemble Model
Live target weights and regime posture from the currently pinned live book
Current recommended allocation · updated daily
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stocks
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bonds
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gold
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regime
The firm's defensive-mix guidance (stocks / bonds / gold), recorded to a daily ledger since 2026-08-02; the forward track record will be published from that ledger as it accrues. The book below is one live sleeve and is narrower than this guidance.
Live results · all tracked books · each vs the index over its own account life
| Book | Return | S&P 500, same window |
|---|
Actual results of the firm's tracked model-capital accounts, shown in full — including
underperformance. No client capital is deployed in the tracked record. Book A is shown on its
complete broker history; an interim capital re-baseline in July 2026 is looked through rather
than used to restart the record. The books were restructured during this window (strategy
assignments changed); the record reflects everything that happened, not a curated subset.
Index comparisons are inception-matched per book (Book A funded 2026-03-20, Book D 2026-06-02,
Book C 2026-07-06) — each book is measured against the index over the period it actually
existed, not against a window that predates it.
Status
Validation stage
forward, out-of-sample
What this shows
Live target weights
model output, not a return claim
Promotion bar
t > 3
Harvey (2016), frozen sample
Universe
US equity + defensives
large-cap + bonds/gold
We do not headline live returns. A short window of live performance says far
more about market regime than about signal quality, and the live books are presently
beta-driven and mid-restructure. This page shows the model's current target allocation and
regime posture — the actual deliverable — not a return, alpha, or Sharpe figure. A
signal earns a capital allocation only after it clears forward, out-of-sample validation at the
Harvey (2016) t>3 bar.
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Posture—
Holdings—
Trading days—
The model's posture in this regime is described above.
Posture and weights are model output. They are not a recommendation for your portfolio,
and they are not a performance representation.
Target Allocation
| Ticker | Target % | Current % | Δ to target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading weights… | |||
Recent Rebalance Activity
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Important disclosures. Quark Research is a publisher of market commentary and model outputs. The
performance shown is the firm's own tracked record of the strategy operated against live market data. No
client capital was deployed during the tracked period; all returns are the result of model output applied
to a forward-prospective paper book held internally by the firm. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations
and does not reflect the impact of actual trading, liquidity constraints, or the market conditions that would have
applied to real transactions. Past or simulated performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results.
Investment involves risk of loss. This material is for informational purposes only and is not personalized
investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or investment services.
See disclaimer, terms, and privacy for full disclosures.